Africa Energy Outlook

Environment

international-energy-agency
The present document can't read!
Please download to view
16
All materials on our website are shared by users. If you have any questions about copyright issues, please report us to resolve them. We are always happy to assist you.
Description
Text
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 London, 13 October 2014
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 The sub-Saharan context  GDP is rising, but almost half of a fast-growing population lives in extreme poverty: energy is vital to the prospects for development  Region accounts for 13% of global population, but only 4% of its energy demand: half of this is biomass  Poor electricity infrastructure is a key impediment to growth  Large resource base, exploited only in part in the case of oil, gas & coal, largely untouched in renewables  Domestic energy reforms gaining speed, but two-thirds of energy investment since 2000 went to develop resources for export
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 Rich in resources In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-Saharan Africa; Hydro Wind Oil Oil Oil OilGas Gas Oil Coal Gas Fossil fuels Solar the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydro & solar
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 In sub-Saharan Africa, 620 million people – two-thirds of the population – live without electricity. Only a handful of countries have electrification rates above 50%. Less than 50% More than 50% Share of population with access to electricity: Rich in resources, but poor in supply
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 Biomass remains at the centre of the sub-Saharan energy mix Total primary energy demand in sub-Saharan Africa Reliance on fuelwood and charcoal remains high, even as incomes grow; 650 million people still cook with biomass in an inefficient & hazardous way in 2040 300 400 500 Mtoe 100 200 Nuclear Gas Modern renewables Coal Oil Biomass 2012 Additional demand in 2040 Mtoe
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 Power to shape the future Installed power generation capacity by fuel in sub-Saharan Africa Renewables account for almost half the growth in overall power supply & for two-thirds of the mini-grid and off-grid systems installed in rural areas Coal 45% Gas, 14% Oil, 17% Nuclear, 2% Hydro 22% Other renewables 0% 2012 capacity: 90 GW 2040 capacity: 380 GW Coal 22% Gas 25% Oil 7% Hydro 24% Solar 12% Nuclear 2% Bioenergy, wind geothermal 8%
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 Different paths to power across the continent The power mix by subregion reflects local resource endowments; well-functioning regional power pools help to unlock new projects, lower costs & improve reliability 100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2020 2040 West TW h 30 60 90 120 150 2000 2020 2040 Central TW h 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2020 2040 East TW h Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Solar PV Other renewables 200 400 600 800 1 000 2000 2020 2040 Southern TW h
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 Minor cause, but major effect Cumulative CO2 emissions, 1890-2012 Sub-Saharan Africa is on the front line to feel the effects of a changing climate but, even with an extra 25 Gt to 2040, accounts for only a marginal share of emissions 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 United States European Union China India Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa Gt CO2
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 A changing balance to oil production Oil production in sub-Saharan Africa The region remains a major global supplier, although regulatory uncertainty, unrest & oil theft in Nigeria make Angola the main producer of crude oil until the 2020s Other Angola Nigeria Production: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040 mb/d
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 A new global gas player Increase in gas production in selected countries and regions, 2012-2040 LNG export is the anchor for the east coast gas discoveries , but half of the overall increase in gas output goes to domestic power generation & industry 50 100 150 200 250 North Africa Australia Russia Sub-Saharan Africa United States bcm Mozambique Nigeria Other Angola Tanzania
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 Sub-Saharan fossil fuel export revenues Sub-Saharan Africa turns to Asia Export destinations for all fossil fuels switch towards Asia-Pacific markets: gas & coal volumes rise, but oil exports tail off as more crude is refined within the region Revenue from European & Atlantic basin markets Revenue from Asia-Pacific markets 30 60 90 120 150 180 2005 2013 2040 30 60 90 120 150 180 2005 2013 2040 Coal Natural gas Crude oil Bi lli on do lla rs (2 01 3) Bi lli on d ol la rs (2 01 3)
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 Investment has to come home Fuels Electricity For export For consumption within sub-Saharan Africa: In a reversal of current trends, 2 out of 3 future investment dollars produce energy for sub-Saharan consumers, but this is still not enough to meet their needs in full Average annual investment in sub-Saharan energy supply 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000-2013 2014-2035 Bi lli on d ol la rs (2 01 3) ⅓ ⅔ ⅓ ⅔
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 A large step towards universal access, but still a long way to go Access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 300 600 900 1 200 1 500 1 800Million Population with electricity access Population without electricity access Nearly 1 billion people gain access to electricity, but this still leaves 530 million, primarily in rural communities, without power in 2040
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 How could energy make the 21st an African Century?  Energy could do more to act as an engine of inclusive economic and social growth  An African Century Case assesses the impact of faster movement in three key areas:  An upgraded power sector; reducing power outages by half & achieving universal access in urban areas  Deeper regional co-operation; expanding markets & unlocking a greater share of the continent’s hydropower potential  Better management of resources & revenues; more efficiency & transparency in financing essential infrastructure
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 M ill io n pe op le Without access to electricity Energy can build a shorter path to prosperity Outcomes in the African Century Case, 2040 By increasing the coverage & reliability of energy supply, the African Century Case unlocks an extra decade’s worth of growth in per-capita incomes by 2040 Main Scenario African Century Case 1 2 3 4 5 Th ou sa nd d ol la rs (2 01 3, M ER ) GDP per capita Bi lli on d ol la rs (2 01 3) Government revenues from oil & gas production 30 60 90 120 150 180 210
  • © OECD/IEA 2014 Conclusions  Energy is a cornerstone of sub-Saharan strategies for poverty reduction & economic growth  Improvements in sector governance are needed to bring in new energy investors & kick-start development  More efficient & sustainable use of biomass will create a more healthy domestic energy balance  Sub-Saharan Africa remains a mainstay of global oil production & emerges as a major player in natural gas  Concerted action to improve the functioning of the energy sector is essential if the 21st is to become an African century.
Comments
Top