Perils of Perception - Global

News & Politics

ipsos-mori
  • 1. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION1Perils of PerceptionA FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY
  • 2. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION2These are the findings from our 14country study looking at how accurate –or inaccurate – people are when askedto estimate basic facts about theirpopulation or social issues.It shows how wrong we often are:Perceptions are not reality…
  • 3. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION3IN YOUR OPINION WHATPERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGEDBETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVEBIRTH EACH YEAR?
  • 4. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION424 318 117 0.516 215 116 315 214 0.414 0.214 112 0.611 0.711 0.58 0.7+21+17+17+14+14+14+14+14+13+13+12+11+10+7USPolandItalyHungaryCanadaGreat BritainAustraliaGermanySouth KoreaSpainFranceBelgiumJapanSwedenAVG.% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUALQ. In your opinionwhat percentage ofgirls aged between 15and 19 give birth eachyear?People across theworld hugelyoverestimate theproportion ofteenagers whogive birth eachyear.
  • 5. 252015105© Ipsos MORIPeople across the world hugelyoverestimate the proportion ofteenagers who give birth eachThe dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too lowSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION5Average guess %year.Q. In your opinionwhat percentage ofgirls aged between 15and 19 give birth eachyear?% Girls aged between 16 and 19 years that give birth each year00 1 2 3 4
  • 6. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION6WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THEPOPULATION DO YOU THINK AREIMMIGRANTS TO THISCOUNTRY?
  • 7. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION730 732 1329 1028 1016 235 2114 1.7524 1323 1223 1310 210 223 1635 28+23+19+19+18+14+14+12+11+11+10+8+8+7+7ItalyUSBelgiumFranceHungaryCanadaPolandGreat BritainSpainGermanyJapanSouth KoreaSwedenAustraliaAVG.% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUALQ. What percentage ofthe population do youthink are immigrants tothis country?All countriesoverestimatetheir level ofimmigration
  • 8. 403530252015105© Ipsos MORIoverestimate theirlevel of immigrationThe dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too lowSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION8Average guess %Q. What percentage ofthe population do youthink are immigrants toAll countries% Immigrants to this country0this country?0 5 10 15 20 25 30
  • 9. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION9OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOWMANY DO YOU THINK AREMUSLIM?
  • 10. © Ipsos MORIAVG.GUESS ACTUALSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION1031 829 620 218 221 520 415 116 219 617 57 0.15 0.45 0.14 0.1+23+23+18+16+16+16+14+14+13% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH+12+7+5+5+4FranceBelgiumCanadaAustraliaGreat BritainItalyUSSpainGermanySwedenHungarySouth KoreaPolandJapanQ. Out of every 100people how many doyou think are Muslim?People in anumber ofcountriesmassivelyoverestimatethe proportionof Muslims
  • 11. Q. Out of every 100People in a number ofcountries massivelyLorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.3530252015105© Ipsos MORIoverestimate the proportionThe dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too lowSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION11Average guess %of Muslims% Muslims0people how many doyou think are Muslim?0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
  • 12. OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOWMANY DO YOU THINK ARECHRISTIAN?© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION12NationalPerceptions
  • 13. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION13+13+10+9-14-14-15-15-16-18-19-20-21-22South KoreaJapanHungaryGermanyItalyFranceSpainPolandAustraliaBelgiumSwedenGreat BritainCanadaUS42 2912 262 5358 5869 8349 6362 7779 9445 6146 6448 6739 5949 6956 78% POINT DIFFERENCEAVG.TOO LOW TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUALQ. Out of every 100people how many doyou think are Christian?In contrast to theMuslim question,majority-Christiancountries tend tounderestimatehow many peoplecount themselvesas Christian.
  • 14. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.100908070605040302010© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION1400 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Average guess %% ChristiansQ. Out of every 100people how many doyou think are Christian?In contrast to the Muslimquestion, majority-Christiancountries tend to underestimatehow many people countthemselves as Christian.The dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too low
  • 15. OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOWMANY DO YOU THINK AREOVER 65?© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION15NationalPerceptions
  • 16. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION1648 2142 1539 1443 1837 1436 1440 1841 1938 1837 1740 2141 2532 1633 19+27+27+25+25+23+22+22+22+20+20+19+16+16+14ItalyPolandCanadaSpainAustraliaUSHungaryBelgiumFranceGreat BritainGermanyJapanSouth KoreaSwedenAVG.% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUALQ. Out of every 100people how many doyou think are over 65?All countrieshugelyoverestimate theproportion oftheir populationaged 65+
  • 17. Q. Out of every 100All countries hugelyLorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.5045403530252015105© Ipsos MORIoverestimate the proportionof their population aged 65+The dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too lowSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION17Average guess %% Over 650people how many doyou think are over 65?10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
  • 18. OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLEVOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DOYOU THINK VOTED IN THE LASTELECTION?© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION18NationalPerceptions
  • 19. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION1957 8054 7549 6647 6460 7643 5955 6958 7272 8551 6184 9342 4985 89% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW-4-1 57 58-7-10-9-17-17-16-14-14-13-16-23-21AVG.GUESS ACTUALFranceItalyGreat BritainHungarySouth KoreaJapanSpainGermanySwedenCanadaAustraliaPolandBelgiumUSQ. Out of every 100eligible voters howmany do you thinkvoted in the lastelection?All countriesunderestimatethe proportion ofthe populationthat voted in thelast majornationalelection
  • 20. Q. Out of every 100eligible voters howAll countries underestimatethe proportion of theLorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.908070605040302010© Ipsos MORIpopulation that voted in thelast major national electionSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION20Average guess %many do you think% Voted in last election0voted in the lastelection?The dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too low40 50 60 70 80 90 100
  • 21. OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OFWORKING AGE ABOUT HOWMANY DO YOU THINK AREUNEMPLOYED AND LOOKINGFOR WORK?© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION21NationalPerceptions
  • 22. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION2249 1232 439 1132 634 931 846 2529 923 624 724 823 719 4Italy +37+28+28+26+25+23+21+20+17+17+16+16+15+14 20 6South KoreaHungaryUSPolandBelgiumSpainFranceAustraliaGreat BritainSwedenCanadaJapanGermanyAVG.% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUALQ. Out of every 100people of working ageabout how many do youthink are unemployedand looking for work?Unemploymentlevels arehugelyoverestimated inevery country
  • 23. Q. Out of every 100Unemployment levels areLorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.5040302010© Ipsos MORIhugely overestimated inSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION230people of working ageabout how many do youthink are unemployedand looking for work?every country0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average guess %% Unemployed and looking for workThe dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too low
  • 24. WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFEEXPECTANCY WILL BE OF ACHILD BORN IN 2014?© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION24NationalPerceptions
  • 25. © Ipsos MORIAVG.GUESS ACTUALSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION2589 8083 8085 8285 8282 8081 8082 8182 8280 8278 8081 8478 8272 7768 75Q. What do you thinkthe life expectancy willbe of a child born in2014?+9DIFFERENCE IN YEARS TOO LOW TOO HIGH+3+3+3+2+1+1-2-2-3-4-5-7South KoreaGreat BritainFranceSwedenGermanyBelgiumSpainAustraliaCanadaUSJapanItalyPolandHungaryPeople in mostcountries havea fairlyaccuratepicture of lifeexpectancy
  • 26. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.90888684828078767472© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION267070 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90Average guess %Average life expectancyQ. What do you thinkthe life expectancy willbe of a child born in2014?People in mostcountries have a fairlyaccurate picture of lifeexpectancyThe dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too low
  • 27. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION27Looking across all questions,we have calculated ameasure of how accuratethe population of eachcountry is.This gives us our“Index of Ignorance”
  • 28. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION28ItalyUSSouth KoreaPolandHungaryFranceCanadaBelgiumAustraliaGreat BritainSpainJapanGermanySweden1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th7th2nd10th6th11th8th14th1st13th4th3rd12th9th5thINDEX OFIGNORANCESwedenGermanyJapanSpainGBUSPolandHungaryItalySouth KoreaBelgiumFranceCanadaAustralia(Least accurate at top)
  • 29. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION29NationalPerceptionsPERILS OFPERCEPTION INBRITAIN
  • 30. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION303 5 71317596680162124 2437 394983%15-19 girls thatgave birth%Muslim%Unemployed%Immigrants%Over 65%Christian%VotedLifeexpectancyPERILS OFPERCEPTIONINBRITAINThe British public are often verywrong about the basic make-up oftheir population and the scale of keysocial issues such as unemploymentand behaviours like voting.Actual Average guess
  • 31. IMMIGRATIONRespondents who thought immigration wasmore than double the actual figure said themain reason they over-estimated is becausethey believe illegal immigrants enter thecountry without being counted.© Ipsos MORIPeople come into the country illegally so60% aren’t countedI still think the proportion is49%much higher46%33%Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor21%11%PERILS OF PERCEPTION314%3%1%19%39%What I see in my local areaWhat I see when I visit other towns/citiesI was just guessingInformation seen on TVInformation seen innewspapersThe experiences of friends and familyOtherI misunderstood the questionDon’t know% who thoughtimmigration is26% or moreAccording to official statistics the percentage of theBritish population that was born in another country isactually 13%. Why do you think the percentage ismuch higher?41%Base: Asked of all who said 26%+
  • 32. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION32CRIMEPlease tell me whether you think the following statement istrue or false: The murder rate is rising in Britain25%49%26%60%50%40%30%20%10%%TRUE FALSE (Correct) Don't KnowA quarter of theBritish public thinkthe murder rate isrising – but half(correctly) say it isfalling. Morepeople get thiscorrect in Britainthan any othercountry
  • 33. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION33• This study is based on a survey run onIpsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26August 2014• Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in24 countries around the world via theIpsos Online Panel.• For this study, 14 countries with highinternet penetration were included:Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, GreatBritain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan,Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden andthe US.• The research is based on an internationalsample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 inthe US and Canada, and aged 16-64 inall other countries. Sample size isapproximately 1,000 per country, with theexception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland,South Korea and Sweden where eachhave a sample of approximately 500• Data are weighted to ensure that thesample's composition reflects that of theadult population according to the mostrecent Census data in each country• The “point difference” figures that showdifferences between the “actual” and“average guesses” may not match astraight subtraction. This is due torounding, as the calculation is conductedusing decimal places
  • 34. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION34 © Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTIONFor more information, please contact:Bobby Duffy, Global Director Ipsos Social Research [email protected]@BobbyIpsosMORI
    Please download to view
  • 34
    All materials on our website are shared by users. If you have any questions about copyright issues, please report us to resolve them. We are always happy to assist you.
    Description
    Ipsos MORI have compared perceptions of the likes of immigration levels, religious demographics and teenage birth rates with the actual figures across fourteen countries. See how your country did!

    How would you have fared? Take the quiz: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/perceptionsquiz
    Text
    • 1. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION1Perils of PerceptionA FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY
  • 2. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION2These are the findings from our 14country study looking at how accurate –or inaccurate – people are when askedto estimate basic facts about theirpopulation or social issues.It shows how wrong we often are:Perceptions are not reality…
  • 3. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION3IN YOUR OPINION WHATPERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGEDBETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVEBIRTH EACH YEAR?
  • 4. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION424 318 117 0.516 215 116 315 214 0.414 0.214 112 0.611 0.711 0.58 0.7+21+17+17+14+14+14+14+14+13+13+12+11+10+7USPolandItalyHungaryCanadaGreat BritainAustraliaGermanySouth KoreaSpainFranceBelgiumJapanSwedenAVG.% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUALQ. In your opinionwhat percentage ofgirls aged between 15and 19 give birth eachyear?People across theworld hugelyoverestimate theproportion ofteenagers whogive birth eachyear.
  • 5. 252015105© Ipsos MORIPeople across the world hugelyoverestimate the proportion ofteenagers who give birth eachThe dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too lowSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION5Average guess %year.Q. In your opinionwhat percentage ofgirls aged between 15and 19 give birth eachyear?% Girls aged between 16 and 19 years that give birth each year00 1 2 3 4
  • 6. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION6WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THEPOPULATION DO YOU THINK AREIMMIGRANTS TO THISCOUNTRY?
  • 7. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION730 732 1329 1028 1016 235 2114 1.7524 1323 1223 1310 210 223 1635 28+23+19+19+18+14+14+12+11+11+10+8+8+7+7ItalyUSBelgiumFranceHungaryCanadaPolandGreat BritainSpainGermanyJapanSouth KoreaSwedenAustraliaAVG.% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUALQ. What percentage ofthe population do youthink are immigrants tothis country?All countriesoverestimatetheir level ofimmigration
  • 8. 403530252015105© Ipsos MORIoverestimate theirlevel of immigrationThe dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too lowSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION8Average guess %Q. What percentage ofthe population do youthink are immigrants toAll countries% Immigrants to this country0this country?0 5 10 15 20 25 30
  • 9. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION9OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOWMANY DO YOU THINK AREMUSLIM?
  • 10. © Ipsos MORIAVG.GUESS ACTUALSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION1031 829 620 218 221 520 415 116 219 617 57 0.15 0.45 0.14 0.1+23+23+18+16+16+16+14+14+13% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH+12+7+5+5+4FranceBelgiumCanadaAustraliaGreat BritainItalyUSSpainGermanySwedenHungarySouth KoreaPolandJapanQ. Out of every 100people how many doyou think are Muslim?People in anumber ofcountriesmassivelyoverestimatethe proportionof Muslims
  • 11. Q. Out of every 100People in a number ofcountries massivelyLorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.3530252015105© Ipsos MORIoverestimate the proportionThe dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too lowSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION11Average guess %of Muslims% Muslims0people how many doyou think are Muslim?0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
  • 12. OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOWMANY DO YOU THINK ARECHRISTIAN?© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION12NationalPerceptions
  • 13. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION13+13+10+9-14-14-15-15-16-18-19-20-21-22South KoreaJapanHungaryGermanyItalyFranceSpainPolandAustraliaBelgiumSwedenGreat BritainCanadaUS42 2912 262 5358 5869 8349 6362 7779 9445 6146 6448 6739 5949 6956 78% POINT DIFFERENCEAVG.TOO LOW TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUALQ. Out of every 100people how many doyou think are Christian?In contrast to theMuslim question,majority-Christiancountries tend tounderestimatehow many peoplecount themselvesas Christian.
  • 14. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.100908070605040302010© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION1400 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Average guess %% ChristiansQ. Out of every 100people how many doyou think are Christian?In contrast to the Muslimquestion, majority-Christiancountries tend to underestimatehow many people countthemselves as Christian.The dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too low
  • 15. OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE HOWMANY DO YOU THINK AREOVER 65?© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION15NationalPerceptions
  • 16. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION1648 2142 1539 1443 1837 1436 1440 1841 1938 1837 1740 2141 2532 1633 19+27+27+25+25+23+22+22+22+20+20+19+16+16+14ItalyPolandCanadaSpainAustraliaUSHungaryBelgiumFranceGreat BritainGermanyJapanSouth KoreaSwedenAVG.% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUALQ. Out of every 100people how many doyou think are over 65?All countrieshugelyoverestimate theproportion oftheir populationaged 65+
  • 17. Q. Out of every 100All countries hugelyLorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.5045403530252015105© Ipsos MORIoverestimate the proportionof their population aged 65+The dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too lowSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION17Average guess %% Over 650people how many doyou think are over 65?10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
  • 18. OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLEVOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DOYOU THINK VOTED IN THE LASTELECTION?© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION18NationalPerceptions
  • 19. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION1957 8054 7549 6647 6460 7643 5955 6958 7272 8551 6184 9342 4985 89% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW-4-1 57 58-7-10-9-17-17-16-14-14-13-16-23-21AVG.GUESS ACTUALFranceItalyGreat BritainHungarySouth KoreaJapanSpainGermanySwedenCanadaAustraliaPolandBelgiumUSQ. Out of every 100eligible voters howmany do you thinkvoted in the lastelection?All countriesunderestimatethe proportion ofthe populationthat voted in thelast majornationalelection
  • 20. Q. Out of every 100eligible voters howAll countries underestimatethe proportion of theLorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.908070605040302010© Ipsos MORIpopulation that voted in thelast major national electionSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION20Average guess %many do you think% Voted in last election0voted in the lastelection?The dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too low40 50 60 70 80 90 100
  • 21. OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OFWORKING AGE ABOUT HOWMANY DO YOU THINK AREUNEMPLOYED AND LOOKINGFOR WORK?© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION21NationalPerceptions
  • 22. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION2249 1232 439 1132 634 931 846 2529 923 624 724 823 719 4Italy +37+28+28+26+25+23+21+20+17+17+16+16+15+14 20 6South KoreaHungaryUSPolandBelgiumSpainFranceAustraliaGreat BritainSwedenCanadaJapanGermanyAVG.% POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH GUESS ACTUALQ. Out of every 100people of working ageabout how many do youthink are unemployedand looking for work?Unemploymentlevels arehugelyoverestimated inevery country
  • 23. Q. Out of every 100Unemployment levels areLorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.5040302010© Ipsos MORIhugely overestimated inSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION230people of working ageabout how many do youthink are unemployedand looking for work?every country0 5 10 15 20 25 30Average guess %% Unemployed and looking for workThe dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too low
  • 24. WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFEEXPECTANCY WILL BE OF ACHILD BORN IN 2014?© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION24NationalPerceptions
  • 25. © Ipsos MORIAVG.GUESS ACTUALSource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION2589 8083 8085 8285 8282 8081 8082 8182 8280 8278 8081 8478 8272 7768 75Q. What do you thinkthe life expectancy willbe of a child born in2014?+9DIFFERENCE IN YEARS TOO LOW TOO HIGH+3+3+3+2+1+1-2-2-3-4-5-7South KoreaGreat BritainFranceSwedenGermanyBelgiumSpainAustraliaCanadaUSJapanItalyPolandHungaryPeople in mostcountries havea fairlyaccuratepicture of lifeexpectancy
  • 26. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt utlabore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamcolaboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit involuptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur.90888684828078767472© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION267070 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90Average guess %Average life expectancyQ. What do you thinkthe life expectancy willbe of a child born in2014?People in mostcountries have a fairlyaccurate picture of lifeexpectancyThe dashed line is a 45degree line. Countries abovethe line have, on average,guessed too high whilecountries below haveguessed too low
  • 27. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION27Looking across all questions,we have calculated ameasure of how accuratethe population of eachcountry is.This gives us our“Index of Ignorance”
  • 28. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION28ItalyUSSouth KoreaPolandHungaryFranceCanadaBelgiumAustraliaGreat BritainSpainJapanGermanySweden1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th7th2nd10th6th11th8th14th1st13th4th3rd12th9th5thINDEX OFIGNORANCESwedenGermanyJapanSpainGBUSPolandHungaryItalySouth KoreaBelgiumFranceCanadaAustralia(Least accurate at top)
  • 29. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION29NationalPerceptionsPERILS OFPERCEPTION INBRITAIN
  • 30. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION303 5 71317596680162124 2437 394983%15-19 girls thatgave birth%Muslim%Unemployed%Immigrants%Over 65%Christian%VotedLifeexpectancyPERILS OFPERCEPTIONINBRITAINThe British public are often verywrong about the basic make-up oftheir population and the scale of keysocial issues such as unemploymentand behaviours like voting.Actual Average guess
  • 31. IMMIGRATIONRespondents who thought immigration wasmore than double the actual figure said themain reason they over-estimated is becausethey believe illegal immigrants enter thecountry without being counted.© Ipsos MORIPeople come into the country illegally so60% aren’t countedI still think the proportion is49%much higher46%33%Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor21%11%PERILS OF PERCEPTION314%3%1%19%39%What I see in my local areaWhat I see when I visit other towns/citiesI was just guessingInformation seen on TVInformation seen innewspapersThe experiences of friends and familyOtherI misunderstood the questionDon’t know% who thoughtimmigration is26% or moreAccording to official statistics the percentage of theBritish population that was born in another country isactually 13%. Why do you think the percentage ismuch higher?41%Base: Asked of all who said 26%+
  • 32. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION32CRIMEPlease tell me whether you think the following statement istrue or false: The murder rate is rising in Britain25%49%26%60%50%40%30%20%10%%TRUE FALSE (Correct) Don't KnowA quarter of theBritish public thinkthe murder rate isrising – but half(correctly) say it isfalling. Morepeople get thiscorrect in Britainthan any othercountry
  • 33. © Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION33• This study is based on a survey run onIpsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26August 2014• Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in24 countries around the world via theIpsos Online Panel.• For this study, 14 countries with highinternet penetration were included:Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, GreatBritain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan,Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden andthe US.• The research is based on an internationalsample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 inthe US and Canada, and aged 16-64 inall other countries. Sample size isapproximately 1,000 per country, with theexception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland,South Korea and Sweden where eachhave a sample of approximately 500• Data are weighted to ensure that thesample's composition reflects that of theadult population according to the mostrecent Census data in each country• The “point difference” figures that showdifferences between the “actual” and“average guesses” may not match astraight subtraction. This is due torounding, as the calculation is conductedusing decimal places
  • 34. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTION34 © Ipsos MORI© Ipsos MORISource: Ipsos Global @dvisorPERILS OF PERCEPTIONFor more information, please contact:Bobby Duffy, Global Director Ipsos Social Research [email protected]@BobbyIpsosMORI
  • Comments
    Top